Oscars 2016 – Post Nomination Predictions

The 2016 Oscar Nominations have been announced (by one of my favourite directors Guillermo del Toro, among others!) and so it’s time once more to have a go at predicting this year’s winners, with more idea of what the Academy have chosen as their top films this time around. I’m going to be discussing the six major categories as I did before: last month, before the nominations had come out, I tried predicting the winners, and while I am still fairly confident on quite a few of these, there are a few where I will have to – as promised – hang my head in shame.

I’m going to talk about my top two choices for each award, and then a nominee (the Spoiler) who I think could be the Joker in the pack and surprise us all by walking off with the prize. That’d be exciting, right?

[su_heading size=”24″]Best Picture[/su_heading]

Spotlight

This was one of my major errors – I originally picked Carol to win this award, and then it didn’t even get nominated, so shows what I know. Nevertheless, I’m going to stick with my second choice, Spotlight, and promote it up to my top pick for Best Picture. I’ve yet to see this film but it sounds like it’ll be a gripping, challenging watch in the same vein as Argo, which won a couple of years ago.

It’s got a great cast and director Tom McCarthy is up for Best Director but may not win that award (see below), so I can see the Academy going for this over… The Revenant, which is my second choice and could still topple Spotlight. But when a film gets 13 nominations overall you have to wonder if that means perhaps they’re not going to present it with the big prize but will spread the love a bit more. Or it could pull a Return of the King and grab everything it’s nominated for. We’ll just have to wait and see… Either way both films would be worthy winners I think.

My Spoiler for Best Picture is going to be… Mad Max: Fury Road, which would be an incredibly popular choice from the Academy. Perhaps the most popular Best Picture winner of recent years? But the Academy isn’t often in the business of pleasing the general public, so its chances are fairly slim I’d say. Great to see it on the list of nominees though!

[su_heading size=”24″]Actor in a Leading Role[/su_heading]

Leonardo Dicaprio – The Revenant

I’m keeping my top two choices the same, even if James and Todd disagreed with me in their Oscar Predictions video. I don’t think Eddie Redmayne or his film (The Danish Girl) have enough support to take him to the win, whereas Leo (now a five-time Oscar nominee who’s never won) has bucket loads of public backing and is the star of the most-nominated film this year. Second choice remains Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs but this is looking more and more like Leo’s year to come out victorious at last.

Eddie Redmayne is therefore going to be my Spoiler for this prize: great as it would be to see him take two Leading Actor Oscars in consecutive years, I’m not convinced it’ll happen.

[su_heading size=”24″]Actress in a Leading Role[/su_heading]

Brie Larson – Room

It doesn’t look like anyone will be able to stop Brie Larson (who recently won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Leading Role – Drama) taking this award home on Oscar night. I can’t wait to see her – by all accounts fantastic – performance in Room and she remains my pick.

I’m bumping Brooklyn‘s Saoirse Ronan up to second place in my rankings, as her performance has gained traction and is different from what we’ve seen from her before – unlike the magnificent Cate Blanchett, whose role in Carol is probably too similar to Blue Jasmine to get her this award.

My Spoiler is Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years, which I really have to get round to watching some day soon. She was one of the biggest surprise inclusions on the Oscar nominations list, but a really good surprise as her performance got everyone talking when the film first got released and it’d be lovely to see her walk away with this – not that she’s got much chance over Brie Larson. Both female acting categories are incredibly strong this year – arguably stronger than the male actors – and there are a number of other performances from leading women which could have appeared in this list of nominees: a good sign!

[su_heading size=”24″]Actor in a Supporting Role[/su_heading]

Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies

The nominees for this category are perhaps more interesting than I expected, and I think Sylvester Stallone could give Rylance a run for his money so he’s now my second choice in the absence of Idris Elba, but I’m going with my gut instinct and picking Rylance for Spielberg’s Bridge of Spies. My Spoiler is going to be Tom Hardy for The Revenant, playing a malevolent traitor – the kind of role the Academy love to reward in this category.

[su_heading size=”24″]Actress in a Supporting Role[/su_heading]

Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

No changes here – I’m still going for either Alicia Vikander or Rooney Mara (for Carol). These two performances could just as easily have been categorised as Leading Actress nominees, and it’s pretty neck and neck between the two of them.

Spoiler is very difficult to choose in this extremely strong bunch of nominees as they’d all be deserving winners and the Academy could still surprise us and go for someone like Rachel McAdams over the two favourites. If pushed, I’d go for Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs, the recent Golden Globe winner. But she didn’t compete against either Vikander or Mara, since they were classed as leads in those awards, so can she beat them? I’d say possibly not.

[su_heading size=”24″]Best Director[/su_heading]

Alejandro G. I??rritu – The Revenant

I’m swapping I??rritu and McCarthy around in my rankings but I think it’s going to be either one of them.

Spoiler is George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road, who would again be a very popular victor but I’m not sure he has much of a chance in the face of those two juggernauts.

Those are my revised predictions, what are your predictions for the Oscars? Share with us in the comments below.